Lettre Boots N°160
Mathieu Boutteçon
9 Aout 2008
Nogent Sur Marne
Temps Magnifique.
EDITO
La Guerre contre l’Iran est imminente. Depuis 3 ans on lit ces absurdités.
En attendant ça se bat en Ossétie province de géorgie. La guerre de l’énergie bat son plein « d’essence ».
Je vais analyser ci après des graphiques parce que sur les forums boursiers on lit toute l’année les mêmes nullités.
La guerre en Iran, la fin du $, la fin de la baisse, maman j’ai peur où va le gold, pourquoi ça baisse, pourquoi ça monte, pourquoi vous êtes aussi nul ? Les gourous s’en donnent à cœur joie pour rassurer les mains faibles.
Des années que je parcours les forums, et nous ne sommes pas plus avancés en 2008 qu’en 1998…
C’est que je ne suis pas diplomate mais quand je vois des buylow, des armagedon conseiller de prendre des positions longues comme s’il en pleuvait et que ça n’arrête pas de baisser je me dis qu’on parle d’argent pas de passe en profondeur pour Henry.
Posez vous la question combien vous voulez perdre avant de faire un trade !
Passons aux graphiques
GOLD WEEKLY
Quand on regarde l’or en weekly un seule réflexion me vient à l’esprit. Il faut être dingue pour acheter avec une configuration comme ça.
On vient de 400 avec un top à 1000 $ ! Si le marché à l idée de retracer une partie de la hausse les 850 $ exploseront. Les mines n’ont pas hésité à exploser les supports retrouvant ainsi les prix de 2006. il faut être dingue mais j’ai prix des calls pour jouer le support à 850 $.
Si j’étais le marché j’irai sans aucun hésitation sous les 850 $ pour créer un méga mouvement de panique et qui dure dans le temps.
On va voir si le marché de l’or a de l’avenir cette semaine.
Aucun intérêt à analyser le HUI pur perte de temps.
Le silver est le petit frère pauvre de l’or tout aussi moche.
Retenez les 850 $ ou mourrez…
Si on tient les 850 $ ça sera l'entrée du siècle.
Sinon RDV vers 800 $
A quelle saison acheter de l'or...
Gold Bull Seasonals 3
Adam Hamilton
It’s been a tough few weeks for gold investors. In mid-July this Ancient Metal of Kings closed near $976, within spitting distance of its all-time nominal high of $1005 achieved in mid-March 2008. But since then it has sold off relentlessly, down 10.4% ($101) at worst. Several days of this ugly span were marred by sharp selloffs too, including this past Tuesday’s 2.2% plunge on the Fed’s machinations.
If you are playing gold on the long side, it is tempting to get discouraged. After all, this week CNBC was emphatically claiming that the global commodities bulls had ended. Never mind that CNBC has prematurely declared these bulls over about a dozen times in the past few years, the misery of the moment is hard to transcend. Gold certainly wouldn’t fare well if the commodities-hating financial media is right.
Thankfully they are not. Global supply deficits in commodities that took decades of infrastructure neglect to create can’t be magically fixed overnight. It will take decades to find mineral deposits, get permits, sink the mines, and bring these scarce natural resources to market to satiate soaring world demand. Gold is no exception, as it is often considered one of the most challenging and difficult metals to mine.
Provocatively gold’s weakness of late was expected by students of the markets. It was nothing unusual at all. Gold has strong seasonal tendencies in its price behavior and the summers are its weakest time of the year statistically. Just a couple weeks ago I wrote an essay on the PM Summer Doldrums that delved into this period of time specifically. Gold seldom does anything but grind sideways during the summer months.
Many traders are surprised when they learn seasonality affects gold. It makes sense for the soft commodities like wheat where planting and harvest, hence relative scarcity and abundance, are slaved to the Earth’s celestial mechanics that drive our calendar seasons. In their case, most new supplies come to market during a relatively tight calendar-defined window at harvest. This affects prices, of course.
But seasonality can even affect commodities that are produced fairly uniformly year round. In these cases it is not supply that fluctuates seasonally, but demand. If demand tends to cluster around certain parts of the calendar year, definite price impacts will be observed. For example snow shovels can be manufactured anytime, but demand (and price if hardware stores are good capitalists) only spikes after major blizzards.
In gold’s case, its seasonality is governed exclusively by investment demand. This is always the biggest wildcard affecting the gold price. There are times of the year when investors rush to buy gold in various parts of the world, and times of the year when investors nearly forget about gold. These episodes of varying gold-demand intensity drive major price fluctuations that hit at specific times of the calendar year.
Before we dig into this gold seasonality, an important caveat is in order. Seasonal influences are real and tradable, but they are often just a secondary driver. Technical extremes that spawn sentiment extremes (excessive greed or fear) can easily override seasonals. I think of seasonals like prevailing winds. While you don’t need a tailwind to drive your car down the highway, it is certainly nice to have.
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Sam 9 Aoû - 17:31